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KMID : 1170320060120010033
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Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy
2006 Volume.12 No. 1 p.33 ~ p.53
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Study for the Optimal Level of National Health Expenditure of Korea
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Tchoe Byong-Ho
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Abstract
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This study suggests the optimal level of nationa health expenditure taken from GDP of Korea, and take two types of approaches. First one is to analyse the determinants of national health expenditures and forecast the optimal level of expenditure using the before results. Panel regression analysis was taken as a method using OECD Health Data. The second approach to estimate optimal expenditure is applying the sustainable growth rates composed of macroeconomic and demographic components to the health expenditures. First, the estimates using panel analysis results are 6.02% in 1990, 6.08% in 2000, and in the long run 8.49% in 2020 and 9.09% in 2030. The actual estimates are reported 4.57～4.77% in 1900 and 4.72～5.88% in 2000 that are lower than the optimal estimates. Second, the estimates by the sustainable growth rate approach are depending upon how the actual expenditures are estimated in the base year. If the base year is taken as 2000, Jang(2000) calculated as 5.88% and using that calculation 7.01% in 2020 and 8.20% in 2030. In the other hand, Chung(2005) calculated as 4.72% and so on 5.63% in 2020 and 6.58% in 2030. However, if the base year is taken as 2001 which is the year after the introduction of separating policy of prescribing and dispensing, the sustainable health expenditures would be different. As of 2030, the estimates become 9.27% and 7.53% when applying the results of Jang(2003) and Chung(2005). Concludingly, the exact estimates of national health expenditure is very important as a basic information for the appropriate resource allocation, and more as a basis to suggest the future optimal level of national health cost.
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KEYWORD
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national health expenditure, panel regression, sustainable growth rate, optimal health expenditure
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